Update; 12th January 2010
Thai Civil War “Officially” Launched: Sae Daeng Hammered

The Thai government had officially launched the “Civil War” in Thailand by putting Sae Daeng on “Inactive Duty.” For our readers who have little time to follow the events in Thailand, Sae Dang is a key figure in the Red Shirt movement that wants fundamental change to the Thai society-in basing Thailand’s political system on democratic principle, instead of the current “Outside Constitutional Powers” system by the privy councilors. The privy councilors have been very protective of their powers to the extent that they are willing to accept “Massacre” of their own Thai countrymen. That have obviously resulted in an equal opposing force, being the Red Shirt have gone preparing to “use violence” against “violence” against them. Sae Daeng is a key strategist in that use of that counter-violence.

Update; 10th January 2010
Of Beggars in Thailand and Bi Lateral Politics

At about 11 am last Monday in Bangkok, the police made a clean sweep of the city for beggars, netting about 300 Cambodians who had supposedly sneaked into Thailand to beg for a living-along with Thais. Their fate now is up to mercy of the Thai police, where if strict, the Cambodians can serve long jail time for sneaking into Thailand. At about 1 pm the same day in Phnon Penh, the Cambodian government allowed a Thai air traffic company, that was banned from operating the flight traffic control because it was infected with spy, go back to run the flight control. Just coincidence? Yes, correlating the two events as related is difficult at best. However, both occurred on the same say and within hours from each other, and most of you know, the Thai government and the governor of Bangkok are from the same party-and in Thailand, the police is very much a lever of the government. Is it beyond belief and comprehension, that beggars can be used as a diplomatic lever? Well, actually the Thai government uses everything as levers-you name it, from the courts, police to whatever. So to seriously make an attempt at correlating both events, the key is not what is occurring to the Cambodian beggars-but to the current Thai government attitude towards humanitarian assistance. It is very sad that in Thailand’s case, humanitarian aid, has always been a tool for Thailand’s interest-not in the being humanitarian in itself. To add a last point, in that during the hottest days in the Thai Cambodian conflict, the Thai government indeed threatened to repatriate all Cambodians out of Thailand.

Update; 8th January 2010
Cambodia's economy in 2010: Is Recovery on its way for Workers and Rntrepreneurs?

Cambodia’s year of 2009 was an unusual one. The sustained period of rapid growth – almost 10 percent for 10 years – came to an end. The 2009 growth forecasts are still being debated, between the International Monetary Fund (-2.75 percent), the World Bank (-2.2 percent), the ADB (-1.5 percent), and the Government (+2.0 percent). But the core issue is somewhere else: it is the fact that most citizens and investors were planning on continued rapid growth, and this did not happen in 2009. Those planning to send remittances to their villages could not do so. Those planning to sell their land for capital gains could not do so. Imports of cars and motorbikes decrease, and some signs of debt distress for a few. Importantly, the slowdown was not limited to sectors exposed to the global economy, say garments and tourism: the slowdown had rippled effects on tuk-tuk drivers, small restaurants and other services, etc. Only agriculture – although not everywhere, in part because of the Ketsana typhoon – provided a protected source of income. Hence, looking at the year ahead, the question is whether the recovery is on its way for Cambodian workers and entrepreneurs: A recent World Bank survey of firms, done over the summer with funding from the Danish Development Agency (DANIDA), the European Commission and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, confirms that businesses are much, much less optimistic about their 2010 plans than they were a year ago. However many of them still plan to invest, or decided to stay in business without large restructuring, showing that they probably consider the slump as temporary. Signs of recovery in the construction sector is already visible. Signs in the tourism sector are more mixed, although the high season is showing promising arrivals. This will be one of the key drivers of growth for Cambodia in 2010. The recent increase in rice prices could be a blessing for Cambodian farmers: while the increase in 2008 came long after the harvest, this one happens just at the time of the wet season rice harvest, and hence could benefit farmers much more than in 2008. It will be important to see to what extent Cambodia can benefit in 2010 from these higher prices, as well as from the extension of the European Union’s Everything but Arms scheme to rice since last September. The garment sector remains depressed, but some consolidation around the largest and more productive firms could be a positive development, in line with the global industry consolidation around large global buyers and strategic suppliers with a large capacity.

Update; 6th January 2010
IMF Expressed Concern Over Bank NPLs

IMF has expressed concern over the deterioration in the health of the banking sector and the continued rise of nonperforming loans. While they commended the authorities for responding with prioritized onsite inspections and supervisory noncompliance letters, and encouraged them to continue strengthening banking supervision, they said that immediate priorities should include strict enforcement of the new asset classification regime, prompt implementation of corrective action plans, development of a comprehensive bank restructuring framework, and increased supervision capacity.

Update; 4th January 2010
Is Sam Rainsy Antagonizing the Government by Breaking the Law Through Populist Acts?

Sam Rainsy – the self proclaimed opposition leader, or what should be termed as the Number One antagonist and demagogue in Cambodian politics, is at it again. By tampering with border markers, he has not only broken local laws but also precipitated an international border altercation which if allowed to manifest, could spiral out of control. It could also drag innocent villagers and border residents into a political wrangle which could prove to be very damaging to their livelihood and safety. Rainsy of course is no stranger to this kind of populist activities and controversies. He has been faced with a similar situation before where his immunity was lifted and he fled. Now is away again and his party has again called on His Majesty Norodom Sihamoni to give a royal pardon or intervene on Rainsy’s behalf. That is even before the legal procedures and wheels of justice are allowed to complete its course. CIO is of the view that Rainsy must be prosecuted to the full extend of the law and must be a thought a lesson at respective border treaties and common law. This is critical as otherwise, he will draw or mislead innocents to his cause and this would only serve to bring misery to them as they, unlike Rainsy, cannot flee the country and condemn/chastise the Government and country from abroad!

Update; 1st January 2010
Happy New Year 2010

As we enter a new chapter, it is also good for us to look back at 2009, which we will be leaving behind, in building a foundation for the future that we will traverse together. As we are aware, 2009 had been a time of extraordinary challenges for us. We were facing the crisis of global warming, which threatened the sustainability and well-being of our planet. Not forgetting, we also had to weather the global financial crisis, which hit us at an unprecedented magnitude and scale, causing havoc to families and businesses in every corner of the world. Whatever the challenges and hurdles, we went through all these not by sitting back, but by standing up strong to these challenges, by taking action and making difficult decisions and at the same time, implementing various policies in a thoughtful manner. All these were done solely in the interest and for the well-being of Cambodians in particular and the international community in general. Although we have not fully recovered from the economic downturn, the signs indicate that Cambodia is moving out of the gloom and record positive GDP growth this year. The truth is, we had proven our resolve in situations like in the mid 1990’s when we faced the double whammy of local strife and Asian economic/currency crisis. In fact, this became the basis for transforming our country from a garment -based economy to a an agricultural economy. Likewise, amid the Asian financial storm in the late 1990s, Cambodia survived with its own recovery formula. We had also drawn up and implemented a roadmap towards building a stronger banking and financial sector for the country. As a result, this time, we were saved when many countries were hit hard by the economic crisis due to the failure of their banking and financial systems. At this point, Cambodia and its people are at a historic crossroad. The choices before us are continued prosperity for the nation and improved standard of living for the people, or the nation remaining static with declining standard of living. Therefore, if we wish to be on the prosperity curve, we must be courageous and firm in effecting change and renewal. Sacrifice is also required to raise productivity, competitiveness and mastery of new skills. It is imperative for its future prosperity, that Cambodia uplifts itself in the global economic value chain. In other words, we cannot afford to continue to be an investment hub for low-technology manufacturing industry that is labour-intensive with minimum skills. Forging ahead means creating a knowledge-based economy driven by high capacity for creativity, innovation and adding value. With this mind, CIO wishes all Cambodians and its avid readers, a Happy New Year 2010!!!